Reports on Climate Change Emission Scenarios Posted for Public Comment


Two of the reports that agencies participating in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program are committed to produce, have been prepared by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research and posted on June 10 and 14, respectively, for a 45-day public review. The first report, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations, describes the results of analyses of a business as usual emission scenario and four scenarios to achieve atmospheric stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. The analyses are based on the use of three Integrated Assessment computer models. The model results provide an indication of the implicit costs and predictions of energy technologies over the next 100 years to meet the targets. The second report, Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use, examines the development and use of emission and other climate change scenarios in global climate change applications. It reviews how scenarios have been developed, what uses they have served, what consistent challenges they have faced, what controversies they have raised, and how their development and use might be made more effective. The two reports respond to the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, which noted that sound, comprehensive emissions scenarios are essential for comparative analysis of how climate might change in the future, as well as for analyses of mitigation and adaptation options. These reports will undergo a subsequent review by a new Department of Energy Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) committee, then a review by the Administration before publication by the end of the calendar year.